Agri Outlook
Over all spice pack hit new highs last month. Expected to extend the firm trend in coming month.
Pepper:
The pepper market remained strong during July. Prices in India, Indonesia and Sri Lanka were higher than that of previous month.
Outlook: Robust demand and tight supply may keep up the positive momentum in coming months. Parity price for Indian pepper is ruling around $ 4500 levels. Traders expected the parity prices to breach $ 5000 mark in near-term. The $ 5000 mark may be a tough resistance level to breach. Domestic prices were firm through out the month and heavy profit booking coupled with short selling dragged down the prices towards month end. Even though the trend looks positive, higher levels are not sustainable. Expected to trade volatile in coming month. Existing positions can be liquidated. Buying is advisable on corrections.
Jeera:
Jeera futures extended the gains with futures hitting the final upper circuit few times last month lead by strong buying on strong fundamentals.
Outlook: Heavy rains and persistent bad weather has probably damaged the new crop in Turkey. Prices for Syrian crop were in the range of $3,100- $3,600 per tonne while Indian origin quoted $3,200 per tonne. Expected to extend the positive trend after consolidation for a few sessions. Higher levels are not sustainable in anticipation of volatility due to profit booking and short selling. Exit from existing positions. Buying is advisable on corrections.
Turmeric:
Turmeric futures spurted further last month due to fresh buying amid lower arrivals and firm spices complex. Demand from exporters may increase ahead of the Ramzan festival in September.
Outlook: During the period of Apr-May 2010 turmeric exports were 10,350 mt, up by 8% from same period last year. Steady arrivals and improved demand from domestic traders and exporters may lift up the prices further. Expected to consolidate at current levels before moving up further. Existing positions hold.
Chilli:
Chilli futures were weak through out the month. Spot prices were also weak on regular arrivals and poor demand.
Outlook: Positive export data release in the month end may add up some positive sentiment. Demand expected to improve during monsoon and short covering may support the prices. Fresh buying is expected at lower levels. Expected to trade flat with negative bias. Buying is advisable after a turnaround.
Cardamom:
Cardamom futures turned weak in tandem with spot market. Auction prices were weak on thin arrivals and lack of buyers. Arrivals improved towards month end, which made futures hit lower circuits through out the last week of July.
Outlook: Expected to extend the weakness in coming months. A turn around may not be ruled out, as the current prices look attractive for buyers. Buying at lower levels in far month contracts is advisable.
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